Showing posts with label Korea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Korea. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Trump Blasts His Intel Chiefs as Naive

The Intelligence Community Seal

UPDATE: [31Jan2019] 
Senator Schumer has called for an "Intelligence Intervention of Trump" to "educate the President on issues of National Security."  This comes from the Democrat Party which routinely leaks highly classified and sensitive materials to CNN and other elements of the Press.  

More importantly, Schumer's inference is that he is setting the stage for the "impeachment" of the POTUS, implying that Trump is incapable of managing the Affairs of State.  Mr Trump made clear early on that he had no confidence whatever in the US Intelligence Community's judgment, based on the weaponization of the Intelligence products he had received before and after his Inauguration.
Importantly, Schumer's comments border on Treason, and issue which could backfire on his belligerence.

The POTUS, like any other Chief Executive [Private or Public sector], listens to his advisors and makes his decisions which includes their input.  
[Obama was notable for ignoring his Presidential Daily Brief and instead going to the Golf Course; he was also notable for going to Las Vegas to gamble in the midst of the Benghazi disaster.]

--------------

Click here for related story
Yahoo News, by Dylan Sableford (Senior Editor)


According to the Yahoo News, President Trump has criticized his Intelligence Chiefs as "Extremely Passive and Naive" after they disagreed with his assessment of Iran as a "source of potential danger and conflict".   Trump also discounted their assessments of North Korea and ISIS as continuing to pose serious threats to the US.

This is not to say these managers are not professional and competent; it IS to say the organizations they manage, because of their histories and massive growth since 2001, no longer have the capability to produce objective, precision analysis - in a timely fashion.


Our opinion is based on roughly 50 years of experience operating in and around
 the Intelligence Community and LEC with Military Intelligence, CIA, DIA, NSA, 
DOJ, theFBI [including active roles as Analyst and Operations Manager, as 
Case Officer, Special Operations advisor, builder, instructor, and director of a 
national MilitaryIntelligence organization that trained over 1,000 units, 
Special Intelligence Advisorto the CG of Southern Command and to the 
CIA's DDO-LADirector of Operations for the Defense Clandestine Service
and Editor of the (Intelligence) Black Book at  the Pentagon]. 


Our judgement is that Mr Trump is correct in doubting the ability of the current Intelligence Community to provide an accurate National Security assessment.  What he receives has no particular value.


The IC ranks are filled with programmed analysts who feed the current leadership the politicized drivel they’ve been forced to produce over the previous four Administrations.

This is a bloated, relatively incompetent bureaucracy, incapable of making objective assessments.

Now, what may have originally begun as an extremely accurate, objective assessment by an experienced and highly skilled analyst must currently  navigate through a dozen or more layers of politicized supervisory bureaucrats, altering content to meet the accepted political orientation of each layer.

By the time the modified assessment reaches the Director level, it has become worthless pablum, inoffensive to even the most mindless politician - and thus acceptable to brief the President.

Back in 2002, with Ed Meese, we redesigned the Intelligence Community and capped the entire IC at fewer than 10,000 for all the components, with no more than 100 staff for the newly created Director of National Intelligence [DNI] to replace the Director of Central Intelligence which had become an incompetent but all-powerful overseer of all the Intelligence organizations.

The DNI, as we envisioned it, would become a streamlined coordination point through which intelligence collection could be coordinated and assessments could be conducted in an open and collegial manner.

STU III
Previously, coordination of precision intelligence was routinely conducted over the Grey Phone
[aka: STU, or secure telephone unit] in which all levels of classified information could be discussed without fear of interception.

A collective call could bring in analysts from key agencies, complete with tasking and retrieval, and on the spot assessments -- to be translated into refined intelligence.

But, the last time we checked, the IC had swollen to nearly 900,000 underemployed drones cleared at the Top Secret level, staffing nearly 1,300 government organizations, supported by nearly 2,000 private companies in 10,000 locations, with a proposed budget of about $60 Billion.

Today, that same coordination would be either impossible, or would take weeks of coordination, and "oversight".


To clarify, supporting this monstrous behemoth, we calculate there is a core competency of about 10,000 superb analysts, operators, and support personnel whose professionalism and expertise carry the weight and expense of the other 890,000 non-essential employees.

These professionals can tap into the collection and analysis of experts in accessible organizations [e.g., NSA, DIA, or NRO] in order to add technical expertise to their assessments and operations.  Agencies such as NSA have highly sophisticated equipment which gathers an incredible amount of information, which is stored, but inadequately analyzed to become finished Intelligence.  Furnished to the right analysts, the information can serve to create accurate intelligence.


As a footnote, 
the IC is NOT composed of 17 agencies - as reported in the accompanying article which apparently uses Hillary Clinton or Senator Warner as its prime sources.

There are more than 1,000 organizations which collect, process, and contribute to a few actual agencies tasked with producing national Intelligence products.

These are:
1) CIA
2) DIA,
3) NSA [National Security Agency]
4) NRO [National Reconnaissance Office]
5) NGA [National Geospatial Intelligence Agency]

The DNI [Director of National Intelligence] is an Administrator - not an agency.

The following are not agencies, but are Intelligence subsets of Departments or other agencies
1) DOD/DHS
     a) Army
     b) Navy
     c) Air Force
     d) USMC
     e) USCG
     f) Secret Service [formerly under Treasury Department]
     g) ICE
     h) Customs & Border Protection
     i)  TSA

2) Treasury Department [Intelligence Bureau; Secret Service]
3) Energy Department [Office of Intelligence and Counterintelligence]
4) Department of Justice
    a) FBI
    b) DEA
    c)  ATF
5) Commerce Department [Intelligence Bureau]
6) State Department [Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)]

There are a few other highly specialized organizations which conduct unique programs; but, those are not officially part of the Intelligence Community.

 In summary, Trump is correct in his assessment of the IC chiefs who are Administrators, and not experienced operators or analysts.

Mr Trump is better served by outside organizations which specialize in collecting and analyzing Intelligence on specific areas and topics pending a complete revamping of the Intelligence Community.





Sunday, January 6, 2019

Trump Pulls Troops Out of Syria and Afghanistan



Mattis, a superb combat warrior, disagrees with a  superb strategist
They're both right! 





We may take a bit of flack from pseudo-hawks and NeoCons, but we support Trump's decision 100%.

Old Military and Intelligence guys have wondered at the rationale of keeping our troops in the Middle East.
Saddam is dead,
Osama bin Laden is still dead.

We have no stake in the Middle East other than to assist governments to stabilize, which does not include the massive presence of Central Command Forces. Nor does it require keeping massive US Military forces in Europe under the European Command -- a relic of the Cold War. Let the Europeans fund and populate NATO; we're tired of taking their lip and funding their exquisite tastes.

As necessary, we have the capability of transporting a fully equipped combat division, with combat support aircraft from the US to a crisis site within hours via our Transportation Command's  C-5 and
C-17 cargo planes.  We can deploy supersonic bombers and fighters from the US to arrive over the Middle East with minimal flight time with maximized combat effectiveness.

We should learn from history [an odd idea, now, isn't it?]

We've been involved in these faux wars for decades, the purpose of which always remains vague - other than to support the Military-Industrial Complex -- as detailed by General/POTUS Eisenhower.

As the Soviet Empire was crumbling, we sat with Bill Clark, then the Assistant Secretary of the Army [General Mark Clark's son] as he bemoaned the future/demise of the Military without a defined enemy.

Specifically, without a definable enemy, we would have no reason to maintain a large, standing Military; and if a new global crisis arose, how could we mobilize in time to meet that crisis?

We've spent a few years in combat in a variety of countries, supposedly to "defend our country", only to learn the enemies we fought were once our friends, and our current friends were once our enemies.

Worse, we learned our "leaders" [e.g., Kissinger, Bush-1, W, Robert Gates, Obama, Billary] were the actual enemy we've come to know as the Deep State, all leading us into senseless wars.

After we [personally] were able to defeat the insurgency in Northeast Thailand, we gloated until we learned the insurgency had been sponsored by the Chinese who coopted the anti-government movement protesting the government's confiscation of farmlands in order to build a hydro-electric dam, funded by our very own Agency for International Development [USAID].  The dam construction devastated famers by claiming their fertile land and relegating this once prosperous group to generations of poverty and government subsidies.

But, the "greater good" prevailed as the region received electricity -- although few could use it.

That revelation in 1974, got us to thinking about our major Military commitments.

China and Vietnam [Ho Chi Minh] were some of our greatest supporters in WW2, establishing OSS spy networks (which we inherited during the Vietnam War) and recovering our downed pilots; but now, that enemy, Japan - the invading force, is our close ally in the Pacific, and China is now our enemy.

Ho Chi Minh worked in England and in France, and on the docks in Baltimore, so he was fluent in English as well as the US culture.

He led the movement for independence from France and formed the Indochinese Communist Party, and following WW2, sought Eisenhower's support for Vietnam's independence - which Ike declined.



LBJ initiated the war with North Vietnam by sending our warships into their territorial waters, drawing fire, thus convincing Congressional hawks to declare war.

As it turns out, the Tonkin Gulf Resolution was drafted a full six months before the attacks on US vessels occurred.

While we valiantly fought that war until 1975, Henry Kissinger, without the knowledge of Nixon, was selling us out to the Chinese in 1972, in exchange for a trade agreement.

But, throughout that war, we were often reminded of the heroin trade, via the Golden Triangle, through US Military transport, to the US.  Some folks are convinced that trade was sponsored or conducted by the CIA.

Iraq, for decades before we invaded to depose Saddam, was our closest Middle East Arab Ally [see our colleague, #Rick Francona's book "Ally to Adversary"], as well as our principal oil supplier.

Dick Cheney's Defense Contractors made a fortune exploiting the war -- and our soldiers, and we then had a generation of soldiers succumb to the Gulf War Syndrome [attributed to the oil vapor from burning wells, or, depleted uranium munitions, but in fact, derived from the Anthrax vaccine immunizations in 1990 by order of the Department of Defense on all Army troops who "might" be deployed to Iraq -- Bush's friends in the Pharmaceutical Industry profited mightily from that requirement -- even though it had not been through more than one (incomplete) trial.

Theoretically, the US would use oil sales from Iraq to pay for that war, but, in the end, the oil fields went under the control of other countries, and the US got not a cent!  On the other hand, US Defense contractors made fortunes.

Estimates by Reuters put the estimated total cost of the Iraq War at more than $5.6 Trillion.  
The war killed an estimated 150,000 Iraqi civilians, with unconfirmed estimates ranging up to 600,000, including security forces, insurgents, journalists, and humanitarian workers!  Bush demonstrated US power by publicly executing Saddam by hanging him, by the neck, until dead.
[Rumor has it that W faced that same sentence in Gitmo in December, 2018]

The social impact in Iraq included the reinvigoration of Islamic militants, reversal of women's rights, and a weakened an already precarious healthcare system.  The multi-billion reconstruction effort was regarded a failure as most of the monies spent on security was lost to waste or fraud.

Keep in mind that the basis of George W Bush's invasion of Iraq was based on his announcement that Saddam Hussein held "Weapons of Mass Destruction" [WMD] a claim discounted by Rick Francona who was/is an expert on the region and acted as General Schwartzkopf's personal Arabic interpreter and Intelligence Advisor.

Schwartzkopf, opposed by Dick Cheney later became critical of the rationale behind the war once he learned the "WMD" claim was fraudulent and handed in his retirement papers rather than remain on Active Duty.  No evidence was ever substantiated of WMDs in Iraq.

Our legacy in Iraq was, perhaps, to create the subsequent regional terrorist factions which represent our current global threat.

The Afghans were our closest allies in their battles against the Soviets, as we helped create and aided the Mujahiden; but, there were even allegations that the CIA created Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda, via Operation Cyclone, -- and then, once the Soviets were defeated, we abandoned our Afghan colleagues, allowing religious zealots to control the Taliban who were then dubbed terrorists; they're now our enemy because bin Laden was reportedly hiding out in Afghanistan.

In spite of the Special Operations assault on bin Laden's Pakistan hideout and his assassination, he has been repeatedly reported in sightings vacationing in the Caribbean with his family.

The faux assassination of bin Laden was conducted by Admiral McRaven's Special Operations units under the guise of Operation Neptune Spear as a public relations event for then-POTUS Obama.  McRaven reportedly was one of the flag rank officers who signed on to Obama's requirement that they agreed to fire on US Civilians if so ordered.

Contrary to all Intelligence protocols, bin Laden was killed and his [supposedly his] mutilated body was dumped in the ocean, sparking Muslim outrage throughout the world, and leaving professional Intelligence officers bewildered that he was not taken captive [he was unarmed] and interrogated to obtain his knowledge of regional and global terrorist groups.

Notably, SEAL Team Six, the lead on the bin Laden assault, later suffered 38 casualties, to include 15 participants of the bin Laden raid when their Chinook helicopter was shot down on August 6, 2011IN [Extortion 17] -- not long after members of the Team lampooned Obama as in Clint Eastwood's Empty Chair soliloquy.

Loading 38 SEALs aboard a chopper in a combat zone strains credulity, but, apparently, the orders came down from McRaven -- an officer we all respected until too many of these incidents surfaced, and he has recently become a highly vocal critic of President Trump.

The chopper was allegedly shot down by a Surface to Air [SAM/MANPAD]


But, why are we in Afghanistan now?

Most experts remain bewildered, other than the US now tacitly protects the poppy/heroin trade.


And, we learned that ISIS, our Enemy-du-Jour, has been led and funded by senior officers of our closest Mid-East Allies, apparently so we would have an officially recognized enemy.

Later, we learned that Benghazi was all about covering up Hillary's arms deals with ISIS and al Qaeda by overthrowing Qadafi and transferring the contents of Libyan armories to al Qaeda -- who just might be tempted use those weapons against US forces.


Of late, we received from an anonymous donor, the complete [unclassified] war-plan designed by [former General] Wesley Clark [Clinton's protege and commander of the Military raid on Waco] in which Clark planned a war between Ukraine and Russia, into which US forces would be inserted and engaged.
[It was difficult to determine who would have been the enemy in that war, but US engagement would guarantee profits for our Defense Contractors.]

In Central America, a grouping of 'banana republics" and a hotbed of corruption, the US built up the Southern Command [SouthCom] headquarters from a Military retirement vacationland to a highly energized and blossoming combat command, focused on defeating the communist threat to Nicaragua, which Jimmy Carter had turned over to the Sandinistas by pulling support from the "evil despot", Somoza - [a West Point graduate] and allowing communist Daniel Ortega to come to power and who then ushered in the Cubans and Soviets -- who presented The Threat.

We were assigned as the Special Intelligence Advisor to SouthCom, a thinly staffed regional headquarters which could respond to any regional crisis, and watched it mushroom into a bloated, top heavy bureaucracy which justified its existence by toppling our host and ally, Noriega with a massive invasion, built a huge Military force in Honduras and El Salvador, created a war zone in El Salvador, and essentially destabilized an entire sub-continent by becoming the common enemy of all, and a seeming ally of the Drug Cartels, thanks to Bush-1, Clinton, Bush-2, and Obama.

The US militarized El Salvador, Honduras, and Costa Rica, and headquartered Army and Air Force bases in each country, and supported Panama's Noriega as a "benevolent despot", who profited by accepting payments from the KGB, the CIA, Army Intelligence, -- and the Chinese.

[We managed HUMINT programs in CentAm following a by-name request by the CIA DDO-LA [D Clarridge] and the former DCI [V Walters] to restructure both the CIA and the Military Intelligence HUMINT operations in Latin America]

Noriega was also a drug runner and arms dealer; but, then we created an intelligence program that revealed that Noriega was not just a tin-horn dictator, but masterminded a global network of hundreds of front companies through which he moved drugs, arms, and laundered money -- a sophisticated network CIA/Deep State coveted, so Noriega was declared evil, and the US invaded Panama, and the CIA took control of all the Noriega Front Companies to carry on their global, Black enterprises.

But, all that is hidden in the background, and Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria are sort of enemy strongholds, but, we're not sure who are the good guys, or the bad guys.

So, now, who will the US have to identify and combat "The "Threat"?
Afghanistan for another 10 or 15 years? or Syria, for another 10 years!

We have the highly skilled and specialized Special Forces [the Special Operations Commmand (SOCOM) designed for insertion into hostile zones to address "Terrorists".

We have a Cyber Command which theoretically can combat hacking by all our Cyber enemies, and even the Russians, if we can admit that the US targets the successor to the USSR
[the Cyber Command apparently includes Spookdblog as an enemy since they have bombarded our residences with impulse waves, hacked our cell-phones and texted Clapper's threats to us, along with excerpts of our highly classified Officer Evaluation Reports (OER)-- just to let us know they could do it.]

Notably, there are several other Unified Commands [AfriCom, SouthCom, Strategic Command, etc.,] which serve no purpose other than to create command slots for unnecessary generals and bureaucrats, and to fund NATO.

But, let's not forget the Defense contractors who provide that expensive support for our Military forces deployed in those regions. The massive expansion of our Military and Intelligence organizations under Bush and Obama have created a huge financial burden, and a bloated Military hierarchy unseen in the history of the US -- even at the peak of World War 2.

These Commands waste manpower and equipment, and create the scenarios for regional wars - usually backing the wrong elements; they augment their forces by deploying National Guard units from the US at great expense. It's time to rethink our Military from top to bottom.

Do we need to remain in Afghanistan or Syria?

Lots of senior Military officers will state adamantly that the US must live up to its commitments in both areas of operation [AO].  But, precisely what commitment is there?



1) Afghanistan: 
After 17 years, our accomplishments consist of:
   a) Trillions of dollars spent,
   b) Deployment of countless National Guard units in six month deployments barely long enough
        to familiarize them with the environment before coming under attack,
    c) Countless suicides during, and after deployments, abominable leadership, massive
        post-deployment illnesses,
    d) Assassination of US personnel by Afghan allies, and
    e) Absolutely no positive results other than protecting Poppy fields for local drug lords,
    f) Bad guys control most of the country and the Afghan Government [our Ally] controls
        a few acres
    g) Most Afghans regard us as their enemy



2) Syria:
We've only been engaged in Syria for seven years, since 2011, and here's a list of accomplishments:
   a) Roughly 500,00 people are dead
   b) Dozens of countries are involved
   c)  Many [exact number unknown] terrorist groups are involved -- on both sides
   d)  Syrian President Assad is backed by Iran and Russia [our current "enemies"] and Pakistan
   c)  Opposition to Assad includes
        (1) hundreds of "militias" from an estimated 85 countries,
        (2) Syrian Democratic Forces [Kurdish-led coalition of Arab and Kurdish Militias],
              (a) led by the Kurdish Worker's Party (PKK)
              (b) regarded by the US and the UK as a Terrorist group although the US provides
                   them air support against ISIS]
              (c) BUT, Turkey fights the Kurds fearing they will use a victory to declare an independent
                    state along the border
        (3) Miscellaneous Arabs, Sunnis, Christians, Druze, and Kurds],
        (4) Islamic extremists -- some of which have been declared terrorists,
              including the Syrian version of al Qaeda [armed by Hillary from Libyan
              military warehouses]
        (5) ISIS- supposedly local Islamic extremists, although manpower derives from a variety
              of countries including Canada, the US, Australia, Israel, the UK, Iraq, etc.
        (6) Official backing by outside nations includes the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey
       

Mr Trump has stated he will pull out of Syria, but, given the complexities listed above, he faces a great deal of opposition from Allies, the Democrats, the Pentagon, the GOP, and all those who anticipate profiting from the continuation of this conflict.

Essentially, Trump is removing his "Boots-On-The-Ground" units and still maintaining a protective shield by creating a "No-Fly-Zone" in the Northeast of Syria which is rich in Agriculture, Water, and Energy resources - the target of all the Bad Guys.

The US can remove its primary units deployed by Obama, but tactically, can still respond, as needed from other Middle East areas, or,  from the US with Special Operations units and A-10 Warthogs, the close-air support aircraft Obama was intent on eliminating.

Assuming the reports of satellite enabled weaponry [Star Wars], bad guys [if accurately identified] could be targeted and blasted into oblivion in seconds using the Directed Energy Weapons developed back in the 1970s, or lasers developed during the 1960s, now significantly enhanced, with targeting via sophisticated technology developed since then.




In the ancient words of Walt Kelly's POGO,
"We have met the enemy, and he is US!"
Trump has an uphill battle to fix this.



Thursday, December 7, 2017

Olympic Stupidity




Click here for related story 
NY Times: Rebecca Ruiz/Tariq Panja

Russia’s Olympic team has been barred from the 2018 Winter Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea. The country’s government officials are forbidden to attend, its flag will not be displayed at the opening ceremony and its anthem will not sound.

"Any athletes from Russia who receive special dispensation to compete will do so as individuals wearing a neutral uniform, and the official record books will forever show that Russia won zero medals."



Oddly, the IOC is now joining the anti-Russia movement by suddenly discovering that Russian athletes have been using performance enhancing drugs. 

So, the IOC bars ALL the athletes vs simply conducting standard testing to disqualify using athletes?




"Keep your Friends close; your Enemies closer!"
We are not a fan of Russia, having been engaged in the Cold War for decades; Russia falls into the category of "Potential Adversary", [a term we coined in 1976 training the Army National Guard] along with China, Syria, Iran, and North Korea -- all of which are potentially guilty of doping their athletes to enhance their performances.

However, we are intimately familiar with the horror of having President Jimmy Carter stupidly block US athletes from competing in the 1980 Olympics because Russia had invaded Afghanistan.

This singularly stupid action of Carter's ideological grandstanding destroyed the careers of countless young athletes.

The Olympic Games were created a few thousand years ago as a diplomatic process by which enemies could all participate in a colloquial setting even though they hated each others' guts and would, in other circumstances, have killed each other.

However, the Games allowed for a temporary truce where adversaries could enjoy athletic competition and perhaps resolve a few differences.


This worked quite well until the last half century when greed became the dominant philosophical trend in the Olympic Committee,



Reform should originate at the International Olympic Committee level, and we have to assume it is replete with Swamp vermin who need to be removed so we can enjoy watching young athletes perform, no matter what the political persuasion/ orientation, or philosophy of their leaders.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

North Korea - War?





The sound of sabers rattling is rapidly becoming deafening.

Bibi sees the invisible


North Korea [NK] has been threatening the US and South Korea now for about 40 years, and on occasion, has actually attacked US soldiers and South Korean villagers and fishermen.  Listening to Supreme [and beloved] Leader Kim Jong-un rant, stamp his feet, and threaten the end of the world reminds us of Bibi Netanyahu's claims that Iran has nukes -- thus his demand that the US declare war on Iran. 

[Goodness! Did Kim Jong-un take obnoxious lessons from Bibi?]


The world, which is nearly unanimous in sanctioning NK, pretty much recognizes that it is a rogue state with no reason to exist other than to serve as a buffer between China and potential invaders allied with the US.  It's not much of a buffer, but there are about 25 million North Koreans, with 9.5 million in uniform, whom China regards as ultimately dispensable from a ground action perspective.  And, China and the Soviets provided North Korea sufficient armament to make it dangerous enough to be noticed and a distractor to the US.

What's at stake here.
Is there actually a threat?

Here's the North Korean Military:

1) Lots of artillery, much of it dating back 70 years.  Their most sophisticated 170mm Field Gun has a range of only 32 miles, a bit short of Seoul.

2) Most of their MBTs [Main Battle Tanks] are 50+ years old.  The newer ones are retrofitted 30 year old tanks.
 

3) Their Air Force has some modern fighters and bombers, but none compare to US technology.
 

4) Their surface Navy is dilapidated and essentially a coastal defense force
 

5) They have a large submarine force - but most are second-hand rehabs.  Their miniature subs are effective, and the GRU reported that one of them was responsible for blowing up the Deepwater Horizon in the Caribbean.

6)  Their Strategic Rocket Forces include missiles dating back 25 - 50 years and are Soviet and PRC hand-me-downs,

7)  Nuclear arsenal?  Well, sort of; ancient warheads retrofitted to fit the smaller NK missile bodies capable of carrying them; all three of them.




So, what's the big deal over this Mouse That Roared?

Why didn't we simply obliterate this paper tiger 15 years ago after the first threatening gesture?




Our Media, fueled by the thrill and excitement of sending our troops back into war, is anxious to sell advertising on its new web sites and during commercial breaks for its talking heads and other mindless comic venues.


Our Military-Industrial Complex [MIC] wants to keep its weapons systems contracts alive and immune from Sequester cuts.

DOD needs to justify its civilian employee population of 718,000 and its budget of $500 Billion

Room for 1 more general?
The Pentagon needs to have a visible threat to justify 500 generals and 162 admirals -- including 30 at the 4-Star rank.

[Figures are vague, but it is estimated that we now have roughly five times as many flag rank [generals and admirals] today as we had in World War II.]

Our Navy now has nearly more admirals than it has ships.

For the most part, our military leadership is not so much interested in neutralizing the NK Military Threat as it is in testing our new weapons and intelligence technology in battle-field conditions.

The Air Force is keen on engaging enemy fighters, while our Rocket Forces are interested in testing out their bunker busters [the one they launched into the Pentagon was pretty effective, but that was 12 years ago]; and they'd like to test the new SAMs, and Patriot missile upgrades.  Our Net-Centric crowd is anxious to see how vulnerable our systems are to NK hacking and electronic attack. and above all, our Drone Contingent is anxious to test the Predator and all the new miniature drone clones.

But, you say, we already know the NK military is using weaponry and equipment that is, for the most part, nearly 70 years old.  What's the challenge there?

Well, after WWII, our military was not allowed to start or fight any global wars, so, we and the Soviets and the Chinese engaged in Proxy Wars [e.g., Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan] so that we could see and test out military equipment. 
[Our infamous hostage rescue attempt under Jimmy Carter demonstrated the US Military was woefully unskilled and ill-equipped].

What's our capability?
Not as good as Google Earth, but, actually, we can do a lot better
1)  We monitor every communication and military movement down to the oil change on Kim's limousine.  Although there is considerable artillery in position, and Kim has been moving more of it to key positions, we know precisely where each tube is, and the air pressure in each tire of the vehicle towing it.  We can even check the temperature in Kim's bathroom [urp!].

If Kim Jong-un were to launch an artillery and rocket bombardment on South Korea tomorrow at 9:00 am, North Korea could lie in smoldering ruins by 9:05 am, having been bombarded with US state-of-the-art artillery and missile fire, Stealth bombing runs, Drone attacks, and lots of shouting and carrying on by South Korean [ROK] troops -- who would then rush across the border to seize NK positions, and to capture tens of thousands of North Korean troops -- who are anxious to relocate to South Korea by any means.


2)  But, that won't happen...

Kim who?

     a.  Officially, there will be hand-wringing in Washington over whether the US can legally engage since the attack will be against South Korea. The lawyers will sort it out in a matter of weeks.  And, the situation will escalate day-by-traumatic day.  The talking heads will babble, John Kerry will look forlorn as he begs Kim to act rationally, and Mr Obama will be able to act Presidential this time [as opposed to his failed Benghazi spontaneous riot scheme.


     b.  Just how much damage can we inflict without looking like we're mean old bullies to be condemned by our Socialist UN friends?  [Why can't you just get along!]

Best that we do so only a little at a time; it can be a conflict of attrition, and we'll sacrifice a few hundred US and ROK troops, and there will be harumphing and haranging on Capitol Hill -- but no action, since most will have received substantial campaign donations from Defense Contractors.

M-1989 [Koksan] 170mm Gun [range: 32 miles]
c.  But, the real reason? 
Both Russia and China will be feeding Kim weapons and technology that they want to test against US capabilities.  And, knowing that, we will stretch out the conflict to see how effective our new technology is.  Will our stealth aircraft evade their radar advances?  Will they be able to jam our GPS systems?  Will they infiltrate our tactical headquarters in ROK uniforms and kill our intelligence people?


[Rick Francona photographed this NK weapon during the first Gulf War (1991)]




Will there actually be a military conflict?

Sort of. 
We have to have SOMETHING to satisfy the Media.
We have to have SOMETHING to allow Mr Obama to act Presidential.
We have to have SOMETHING to offset the Sequester cuts.

So, we'll have a flurry of activity, maybe have a few bombs go off, and then we'll have endless replays and Monday morning quarter-backing by the Talking Heads. 

                                                                                                    [Oliphant]
We'll also need to tread cautiously since we don't want to annoy our Chinese debt lords as we did when MacArthur drew them into the Korean War by announcing he was about to invade them [he was safe and sound in Japan at the time].

In the meantime, China and Russia will be gearing up for a power play.

[But, that's a whole nother blog post!]