Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Obama's Intelligence Brief


President's Morning Brief                      [Paul J Richards/AFP/Getty]

Click here for related story [Wash Post: Marc Thiessen]

The Washington Post, along with much of the Liberal Media, dismisses the fact that the President of the United States has missed nearly 60 per cent of his morning intelligence briefings.  But, the Media counters with the response that he actually read the print version of that brief, sometimes.

Expendable Ambassador
A "Bump in the Road"?
Interestingly, the morning following the assault on the Benghazi US Consulate, resulting in the deaths of the US Ambassador and three other US citizens [and at least one Marine not yet identified as a casualty], Mr Obama again ignored the morning brief and headed out for more campaigning.

He stated that this assault and death of a US Ambassador was merely a "bump in the road", nothing to be concerned about -- unless you work in a US embassy.



So, what's the big difference between sitting in on the morning brief vs simply reading the hard copy report. 

Short answer: Watching the movie Titanic vs reading the Cliff Notes.

Long answer: 
Since we have considerable experience in this briefing process, from gathering the information, to analyzing it, to preparing and delivering the Morning Brief, we'll share what the big deal is.


Will the Chinese Attack Pearl Harbor or Chicago?
The Morning Brief consumes a major effort throughout the US Intelligence Community.  Its purpose is to prepare the President and his decision-makers for the life and death contingencies he/they may have to face during the course of the day.


More goes into this morning report than goes into the morning edition of the New York Times or the Washington Post since thousands of analysts filter through millions of pages of field reporting by spooks, embassy officers of every specialty, Ambassadors' assessments, analyses by CIA Station Chiefs [COS] and Military Attaches [DATT], resident FBI and Treasury agents, and even Department of Commerce Commercial Attaches reporting on business trends [e.g., oil contracts]. 


HUMINT


Added to these Human Intelligence [HUMINT] reports and analyses are the National Security Agency's [NSA] Signals and Communications Intelligence [SIGINT/COMINT] reports of telephone and other communications intercepts of every relevant communication in the world.





SIGINT      [FAS]
Now, add to the HUMINT and SIGINT material all the relevant overhead [i.e., satellite/reconnaissance planes/drones] imagery [IMINT] taken of critical locations and facilities [e.g., nuclear facilities in Iran, Israeli nuclear weapons sites, terrorist training camps, Chinese military facilities, etc.] all of which is impressive stuff [you can read the name tags on a soldier's uniform].



Millions of News Stories
Finally, there is a compilation of open source news reports from every country in the world, with highlights of trends and potential internal and international flare-ups from military, economic, financial, ethnic, or other sources of irritation.

That's a lot of material to edit into a morning brief lasting roughly an hour, complete with visuals.




Jim Clapper:  DNI


Now, all those millions of pages of data are compressed into the President's Daily Brief [PDB], accompanied by the paper copy called the NID [National Intelligence Daily], formerly produced by the Director of Central Intelligence, but now under the thumb of the Director of National Intelligence [James Clapper].

This is all contained in a binder of about 30 pages, each with three to five paragraphs - plus images.



President's Daily Brief
The PDB contains both unclassified information as well as that classified well beyond Top Secret -- known as "Codeword", and abbreviated as TSC.

The "C" also stands for "Compartmented" which means that only a limited number of persons are authorized to have access to the material -- so not all the Cabinet Officers are privy to the contents; usually, just the President, the SecState, the SecDef, and the National Security Advisor.  On occasion, portions of PDB are EYES ONLY for the President.

Intelligence Community


Intelligence Community staffs screen all this information, compile it, edit it, and feed it into a central intelligence staff which refines it into the material suitable for PDB and reduced in hard copy form to the NID.  Separately, key items are highlighted for the oral brief which takes critical information essential to the President and the Cabinet for their decision-making process on issues of strategic importance.





So, the PDB oral version consists of a senior intelligence officer presenting the brief at a podium where he/she can control the visuals during the brief, to include highlights in Power Point, along with key imagery blown up to wall-sized pictures, with subsequent blow-ups to show minute detail.

Multi-media briefing -- Better than the book
For each segment of the brief, there are senior briefing officers fluent in the content and capable of elaborating and/or discussing the strategic impact of the event under review.  These officers are backed up by subject matter experts on call to discuss even the most minute detail of interest to the President or Cabinet Officer.

Thus, the value of the PDB is to educate the President on every major event in the world which may impact the US or its allies.  Because it is delivered orally, it affords the President the opportunity to grasp the importance of an event, and to receive input from his advisors, so that, should a strategic decision be necessary, he will have the background from which to decide, or at the very least, know how to ask an intelligent question to obtain the information he needs. the NID

Browsing, or even perusing the NID, will not provide the President the knowledge he needs as the Commander-in-Chief, particularly if he is more interested in the next campaign speech he will give.

The failure of a President to employ the most effective tool at his disposal 
to conduct the affairs of State is inexcusable.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Libya Attack - Al Qaeda?




As more information comes available via leaks from US intelligence personnel disgusted with the White House spin, the attack on the Benghazi Consulate becomes a bit more clear -- though much more complex -- and contradictory to what the Obama White House has offered for explanations.



Initially, the White House declared the attack to be a "spontaneous reaction" to the infamous Pastor Jones YouTube video. The revised version now designates it a "terrorist attack."

We learned recently that the video, produced in California by persons unknown [the Coptic Christian producer story is BS], and placed on the internet by Pastor Jones, had been on the Internet for nearly a year; oddly, it was translated into Arabic shortly before the Benghazi attack, and promoted heavily in the Middle East -- particularly Libya and Egypt, shortly before the attack on the Benghazi Consulate.  The thread to this promotion seems to lead to Washington.


The contents of Ambassador Stevens' diary, released by CNN, indicate a highly visible and imminent threat which the Obama Administration ignored.  Stevens specifies the threat components, and even kept his movements in the country secret, returning covertly to Benghazi from Europe; oddly, the attackers were fully aware of his movements, reflecting a major security gap in the US Embassy/State Department.

The Secretary of State has condemned that release calling it "an invasion of privacy" and an FBI investigation team has been sent to Libya to report on "the facts" ["just the facts, ma'am"].  We suspect they will collect all incriminating evidence and files and return them to Washington for safe-keeping -- or controlled destruction.

There is speculation by some that the Benghazi attack may lead back to the White House, which might explain why the Administration has attempted to obfuscate the background of this attack.

Fawzi Bokatif       [Reuters/Esam Al-Fetori]
Reportedly, COMINT intercepts between a Libyan politician, Fawzi Bukatef [who has ties to Al Qaeda] and the February 17 Brigade [the Libyan Militia providing security to the Consulate] reveal Bukatef requesting the detail "stand down for an impending attack". 

The attackers arrived as part of an "impromptu protest" against the Consulate - ostensibly in response to Pastor Jones' video, but witnesses reported that the attackers retrieved automatic weapons and RPGs stored near the Consulate to initiate the attack -- indicating the attack had been planned some time in advance - well before the Jones' video had been translated into Arabic and promoted in the Middle East.

Dodge this!

We suspect Mr Bukatef was provided the location and details of the Consulate's Safe House, which came under direct and precision mortar attack once the Consulate staff had moved there.

The Marines and SEALs defending the Safe House apparently were unexpectedly much more fierce than the attackers had anticipated, and the diplomatic staff survived with minimum casualties.



Mr Bukatef is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood [MB] -- now in power in Cairo and led by President Mohammed Morsi.  

President Obama's scheduled meeting this week with Morsi, to which he had invited members of the Muslim Brotherhood, was cancelled this morning. 

Mr Obama had supported Morsi's displacement of Mr Mubarek, with his 2009 "New Beginnings" speech "which reversed President Bush's opposition to Islamists’ demands for theocratic governments in Egypt and other Muslim-majority states."


How closely is US ME policy tied to Muslim Brotherhood?

In July, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's motorcade was attacked by mobs protesting US support of Egypt's President Morsi; they object to Morsi's MB linkage. 

The protests were also directed at Clinton as her primary advisor [Huma Abedin] has family ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.

According to Al Jazeera, Huma's mother, Salhea Abedin is tied to the MB -- is part of a clandestine organization known as the "Muslim Sisterhood" -- which consists of wives and daughters of senior MB leadership.  

Huma's brother, Hassan Abedin, is linked to Al-Qaeda through Omar Naseef and Sheikh Youssef Qaradawi.


Ansar al-Sharia               [Intelligencer]

But, back to Libya.  Last week, the New York Times reported that witnesses identified the Ansar al Sharia [Supporter of Islamic Law] rebel fighter brigade as the element which led the attack on the Benghazi Consulate; pickup trucks with the Ansar al Sharia logo on them were clearly part of the attack element. 

"A few months ago, its leader boasted publicly that its fighters could 'flatten a foreign consulate'."  Its strength is listed as only between 50 and 200 personnel -- but heavily armed from raids on Qaddafi's military warehouses. 

To demonstrate their strength, they kidnapped Brigadier Hamed Belkhair, commander of the official Benghazi garrison, from in front of his house, but released him after six hours - by throwing him from a van into a traffic circle/round-about.  Belkair had earlier announced that he would neutralize all the independent Libyan militias, to include the Ansar al Sharia.

Hani al-Mansouri                       [NYT]

The morning after the attack on the Benghazi Consulate, an Ansar al-Sharia spokesman, Hani al-Mansouri, in an interview with a local television station, saluted the assault comparing it to "... a similar mob attack on the Italian consulate in Benghazi in 2006 after an Italian minister wore a T-shirt mocking the Prophet Mohammed." He later denied his group's participation in the attack.  The attacks were very similar.




Mohammed al-Zahawi  [BBC]



Last June, following minor/unsuccessful attacks on Western diplomatic offices, Mohammed Ali al-Zahawi, commander of Ansar al-Sharia, denied his militia had participated in any of those attacks, but stated to a Washington Post reporter that had his troops attacked the US Consulate [in June] "... we would have flattened it."





So, we now have a variety of players in this incident with ties to both al Qaeda and to the Muslim Brotherhood -- which appears to have had a major role in the Arab Spring uprising, and which has seized control in Cairo [albeit through a "democratic" process] -- and which seems to be linked to the attack on the Benghazi Consulate, and which has ties to the US State Department, and to the White House.

There has been speculation that there may even have been linkage between the White House and the Muslim Brotherhood to orchestrate the attack on the Benghazi Consulate as a means for Mr Obama to demonstrate a dynamic military response, and to prove his military leadership as the US election nears.

But, gosh, that speculation is too far-fetched -- right?
Something dreamed up by the "vast, Right Wing Conspiracy"?
The reach of the Muslim Brotherhood

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Israel to Launch Nuclear War?


Listen to me, you Putz; I'll dictate US MidEast Policy!                                   (c) Telegraph



Click here for related story [NYT]

Mr Netanyahu has ramped up his rant, seeking a Red Line to be drawn regarding Iran's nuclear program. He demanded a meeting with President Obama, who ignored him -- and rightly so.  Mr Netanyahu has been bellowing, ranting, stomping his feet, holding his breath, threatening to unleash AIPAC, and continues to act like a spoiled brat who insists on drawing the US into still another Middle East war by demanding the US attack Iran. 

We need to remind him that he has no role in the US government, thus, he will not make US policy.  It now appears he'll launch an attack on Iran on his own, and hope the US will be forced to back him.

But, let's review a little history here.  How long has this Iranian Nuclear Threat rant been going on?  The Christian Science Monitor broke it down for us with these headlines and dates.

NETANYAHU 1992: IRAN WILL HAVE THE BOMB BY 1997

1992: Israeli member of parliament Binyamin Netanyahu predicts that Iran was “3 to 5 years” from having a nuclear weapon.
1992: Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicts an Iranian nuclear warhead by 1999 to French TV.
1995: The New York Times quotes US and Israeli officials saying that Iran would have the bomb by 2000.
1998: Donald Rumsfeld tells Congress that Iran could have an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit the US by 2003.

The issue remains Netanyahu's insistence that Iran is building a nuclear weapon which it might use to incinerate Israel. 

CJCS Dempsey:  Put a sock in it, Bibi


To his dismay, his is a minority opinion as both his intelligence and military chiefs dispute his claim, as does the IAEA, as do the US Intelligence Community and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey -- who advised he would not "be complicit" in an attack on Iran.







Worse yet, 65 - 80% of the Israelis oppose such a move.
Shibley Telhami (U of MD) in cooperation with the Dehaf Institute of Israel, released their results showing that public opinion in Israel opposes a strike on Iran:


"... only 19% of Israelis favor a strike, even in the face of US opposition.
"34% oppose a strike no matter what!
"42% would back a strike only if it had a at least the support of the US."


Meir Dagan [Mossad Chief]



Meir Dagan, former head of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad, opposes a war with Iran, noting
"I decided to speak out because, when I was in office, Diskin, Ashkenazi and I could block any dangerous adventure.  Now, I am afraid there is no one to stop Bibi and (Ehud) Barak."


Paul Pillar, with considerable expertise in both the Middle East and Counter-Terrorism, supports this view.  Pillar, a Vietnam era Army officer, a well-respected National Intelligence Officer at CIA and the National Intelligence Council, regards the "Iran Nuclear Threat" as speculative at best!

New Balance of Power?
"... they are not seeking a weapon which ... will be launched against Israel.  Indeed, Israel knows this very well, as Ehud Barak himself recently confirmed.  But, the fear mongering, in both the US and Israel, is politically useful and Israel is indeed very worried that their nuclear monopoly will be broken.  So are the Saudies, who, like Israel, would have a much more serious opponent to deal with in a nuclear Iran."

Now, Israel has had a nuclear weapons capability for more than 30 years, detonating their first bomb near South Africa in the late 1970s.  That caused a bit of angst in the Middle East and raised the fear factor there quite a bit -- perhaps leading to a bit of discomfort for Israel's Arab neighbors.

Of the three Mid-East countries with a visible interest in nuclear capabilities, only Israel has not signed on to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, and only Israel refuses to allow IAEA inspectors to visit its nuclear sites.



Since last Spring, there have been several curious incidents which seem designed to force the US to attack Iran.


US Fifth Fleet
On 8 June 2012, US sailors notified friends, family, and the Gold Coast Chronicle that the USN Fifth Fleet ships came under air attack in the Straits of Hormuz, indicating there were several casualties.   When queried, the Navy denied the report, alleging that
1) the USS Enterprise was in the Pacific [Midway] at the time and
2) the ship was in Norfolk undergoing repairs at the time, and
3) that its ships passed through the Straits of Hormuz without incident.

The Pentagon hasn't forgotten
Coincidentally, the attack occurred on the 45th anniversary of the false flag air and sea attack on the USS Liberty by jet fighters and gunboats which Israel claimed were launched by Egypt, but which turned out, in fact, to be Israeli jets and torpedo boats; the attack was designed to cause the US to engage in the Six Day War against Egypt.  We would be disappointed if this attack on 8 June were actually an Israeli False Flag attack designed to draw the US into conflict with Iran as the Israeli proxy.





Innocence of Muslims Film
Of more recent concern is the $5 Million video, Innocence of Muslims that portrayed Mohammed as a fraud, a womanizer, and a pedophile.  It was dubbed in Arabic the week prior to the attack on the US Consulate in Libya.  The producer, Sam Bacile, previously claimed he was an Israeli Jew, although Israel has "officially disavowed all knowledge of him."

Oddly, he had pocket cash of $5 million, was able to assemble a cast of 80,  a film crew, and a set with no connections in Hollywood.  Consultant Steve Klein advises that "Bacile" is a pseudonym, and he does not know his true name.

Currently, Bacile is tied to Nakoula Basseley Nakoula.  The promotion and aggressive distribution of the film by Morris Sadek - an anti-Muslim Egyptian Coptic -- appears somewhat sophisticated, with the obvious intent to introduce it to Muslim audiences -- with the goal of inciting rage among Muslims. 

Pastor Jones - Distributor of Hate
Interestingly, Pastor Terry Jones had no connection with the film's production or distribution -- but was immediately designated by the US and foreign Media  as the scapegoat for the furor and protests which resulted from its appearance on YouTube; he was already well-publicized for his burning of the Quran.   Although the film had been on YouTube for a number of months in English, it was only dubbed in Arabic in early September -- in time for the commemoration of 9/11 -- and coincident with promotion in the Middle East.

In retrospect, it would appear this event was carefully orchestrated to produce turmoil in Egypt -- and the Middle East in general. 

Anti-defamation League director Abraham Foxman denies any Jewish or Israeli association with the production or distribution of the film.

The question is, "Who orchestrated this tragedy?"

Israel after Netanyahu attacks Iran?       (c) KasamaProject
At this point, the Middle East is up in flames, literally; all good will towards the US has evaporated, and the US is now under siege in all Muslim countries around the world.  It appears the objective of this false flag operation was to create turmoil in Egypt, perhaps to prevent it from becoming a threat.  The reverse, however has occurred as the turmoil has strengthened the Muslim Brotherhood and the Muslim extremists. 

Israel is again at risk as it appears it is poised to attack Iran, with the hope of US intervention before it is annihilated. 


According to the New York Times, "Iran's commander of the Revolutionary Guard, General Mohammad Ali Jafari, took the unusual step of holding a news conference to warn that “nothing will remain” in Israel if it, or the United States launches attacks against his country.  He said Iran and its allies — presumably Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza — would retaliate at Israel’s borders, as would Iran itself in Israel and beyond, targeting American military bases in the Persian Gulf and shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. The general’s threats were unusually specific and signaled Iran’s intent to turn an attack into a regional conflict."




To put things in perspective, Iran has an area of 1.6 million square kilometers, about the size of Alaska.  Israel has an area of 20,000 square kilometers, smaller than Vermont.  Israel has a sophisticated military with a large nuclear arsenal; Iran's military is less sophisticated, without a nuclear capability, but with its entire conventional missile force now aimed at Israel; if five per cent of the missiles are on target, Israel will be decimated.

25 Country Mine-sweeping Force
In recent days, the US Navy has joined allies in conducting "minesweeper" exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, along with a deployment of drones; shortly thereafter, Iran deployed a second Taregh-1 submarine [a Russian Kilo class] with the Iranian fleet in the southern port of Bandar Abbas. 



There are also reports that US AC-130 gunships have departed for "parts unknown" -- likely the Mid-East to provide close air support with massive firepower to US forces should they be attacked.







Meanwhile, in Israel, there seems to be a civilian and ex-patriot exodus in process in the face of highly unusual military movements described as a "massive redeployment with 'protective tactics'; there are reports of top military leaders meeting with Israel's senior Rabbi -- an event which has preceded every prior military campaign.

IDF at the Wailing Wall

Another indicator is that several days ago, hundreds of IDF soldiers were at the Wailing Wall, with a large number of military buses en-route there as well.



So, it appears that Mr Netanyahu is about to launch a war against Iran, albeit in the absence of support from Israeli and US Intelligence and Military leadership -- and on top of 20 years of false reports of Iran's nuclear threat. 

Will he finally succeed in destroying Israel? 

And, just in time to disrupt US elections -- creating a national crisis in the US, by which Mr Obama can declare Martial Law to maintain order in the wake of the destruction of Israel.












Friday, September 14, 2012

Failure in Libya


US Consulate - Benghazi in Flames                  (c) Hadeel al Shalchi


Click here for related story [The Independent]

It appears that Pastor Jones' video was more of a distractor than a cause of the attacks on US Embassies in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, and Indonesia.  The attack was a sophisticated, well-planned and coordinated assault -- hardly a spontaneous mob event.

Campaign photo op as bodies are returned          
Senior US diplomats advise that there was "credible information" of a probable attack a full 48 hours in advance, and diplomatic security officials took no action in the absence of directives from the Secretary of State or the President -- neither of whom had attended the morning intelligence briefs at the White House Situation Room this week.

The White House denies that there was advance warning - perhaps because Mr Obama was not there, but, rather out campaigning for reelection.


The attacks were reportedly in retaliation for the US drone strike in Pakistan which killed Al Qa'ida Mohammed Hassan Qaed -- a Libyan.

The Libyan security force guarding the Consulate in Benghazi, consisting of about 30 armed men, reportedly fled the area in the face of the mob, motivated by agitators who energized them by referring to Jones' video.

The mob gave excellent cover to the ringleaders who proceeded to launch the attack after retrieving weapons hidden near the Consulate.

Ambassador Chris Stevens' visit to the Consulate, following his return from Europe, was supposed to be confidential.  Apparently, part of that visit was to receive classified briefs.  New information reveals that there was a "... serious and continuing security breach" which exposed the Ambassador's movements and schedule.

The security breaches exposed the Ambassador's movements, and it appears the attackers planned the the complex operation to coincide with his return, using heavy weapons -- including RPGs [rocket propelled grenades], machine guns, and mortars. 

Initial accounts put the Ambassador in a car with two bodyguards and a public affairs officer -- all being killed except the Ambassador.


An alternate account puts the Ambassador in the burning Consulate, unconscious and overcome by dense smoke; local Libyans supposedly found him and took him to the Benghazi Medical Center where he died.

The Public Affairs officer was reportedly killed evacuating the Consular staff to the Safe House.

The accurate details will eventually surface.






Reuters reports that eight US troops were dispatched by helicopter to rescue the survivors ran into a fierce, overnight ambush, leaving two US Marines dead -- one from mortar fire; another 12 were believed wounded.  The local Libyan commander estimated there were only ten Americans to be evacuated, creating a problem evacuating the other 27 persons.




The "take" from the attack included classified files, the identity of Libyans working for the US -- putting them at risk, oil contracts, and the location of the Embassy Safe House.  However, the Safe House appears to have already been compromised since it came under heavy and extremely accurate attack after about 40 US Embassy employees gathered there.



The attack in Libya may have been only the first in a series of planned attacks which followed in Cairo and Sanaa.  There were concerns that US personnel [embassy and military] would be targeted in Iraq, Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Indonesia.



In addition, British and German embassies have been targeted, and  both were stormed in Sudan.  Islamic anti-American protests have spread throughout the world.
Islamic protests have now spread across the globe                              [Reuters]

This tragedy needs a careful after-action review:

1) Ignoring "credible information" of a possible/probable attack and not raising the alert status put both Embassy and Consular personnel at high, and unnecessary risk -- particularly given the turmoil in Benghazi as rival factions battled for dominance of the region which sits on 80 per cent of Libya's oil reserves.



2) The NEO [Non-Combatant Evacuation Operation] plan, developed as part of the embassy security plan, worked relatively well, given the circumstances, since the staff was moved safely and efficiently to the Safe House and survived a massive. professional,  and well coordinated assault.







3) The failure points were
     a.  Poor security as the attack force
          1) Was fully aware of the Ambassador's itinerary
          2) The location of the Safe House was known to the attackers
               -- whose mortars were already zeroed in.
          3) The Consulate and Safe House had obviously been under surveillance for some time,
               without detection, before the attack
     b.  Inadequate communications between the Consulate and the Embassy in Tripoli.
     c.  Incomplete status reports reflecting the number of diplomats located at the Consulate
     d.  Insufficient number of security force/Marine Guards to protect the Consulate
          -- given the 48 hour warning.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Middle East Meltdown


US Ambassador Stevens being dragged through the streets of Benghazi                             (c) Correire della sera


Click here for related article [Reuters]

The Mullah Terry Jones -- Domestic Terrorist  (c)wmbanzai7
This time, according to Reuters, Jones produced a film with an Israeli-American [nfi] portraying "... Mohammed as a fool, a philanderer, and a religious fake ... and included a scene of Mohammed in a sexual act with a woman."

Defenders of Jones claim he exercised his First Amendment Rights and snicker up their sleeves; the families of the dead diplomats are neither snickering nor defending Jones' actions.

We regard Mr Jones, and his "Israeli-American" collaborator, as domestic terrorists who should be held accountable and horse-whipped for Criminal Negligence.

Meanwhile, our Administration seems to be out of touch with issues in the Middle East and North Africa as civil order has collapsed in Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen.  We're concerned that Lebanon and Jordan may be next on the crisis list.  Iran, remarkably, seems the most stable, while Israel seems to be taunting fate by Netanyahu's threatening to attack Iran.

Obama genuflects before his king

We're not quite sure what Mr Obama's foreign policy is, or if he even has one.  The closest look we had was when he was bowing and scraping to Saudi King Abdullah.

Perhaps his majesty is Mr Obama's foreign policy advisor.

When Tunisia cranked up the Arab Spring, the Administration gushed, and the Liberal Establishment eagerly encouraged the rest of the region to follow suit to achieve "DEMOCRACY"!  How wonderful!

Iranians protesting against their Islamic government
However, when the Iranians rose up to protest their government, the US stood by silently, watching the Iranian government beat down the protestors, jailing them, or killing them.

Had the Administration provided covert assistance -- as was the practice in past Administrations, the protestors might have succeeded in displacing the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regime.




Instead, the revolt leaders have been rounded up and sealed off from any further political dissent -- and we are left with a radical government threatening to build a nuclear weapon capability.





As we advised in an earlier post, Libya's liberation from Qadafi -- to provide a Light Sweet Crude petroleum source for Europe, has backfired, and Libya is now in the midst of a civil war as the multitude of tribes vie for power and control.  There is no functional government, and there is a vicious fight for  control of the secessionist Benghazi -- which sits on 80% of Libya's oil.
 Hundreds of Americans, in Libya on independent excursions to win contracts for oil companies, have disappeared.

Mubarek ousted - Muslim Brotherhood filled vacuum

Meanwhile, the Egyptians demonstrated in the streets, occupied the plaza, and carried banners demanding the ouster of Mubarek.  The police beat down the protestors, while the military remained somewhat aloof.  In the end, Mubarek and his Cabinet acquiesced, and the military seized control to maintain stability.



We suspect that Mossad was operating in the shadows with the objective of destabilizing and creating chaos in Egypt to ensure it did not pose a threat in the future.  Unfortunately, the Israelis may have created their worst nightmare, as the Muslim Brotherhood seems to be dominant now, and will likely pose a major threat to Israel in the future.

Muslim Brotherhood inspired attacks?
Today, we see Egyptian radicals storming the US Embassy and tearing down the US flag in a redux of the 1979 assault on the US Embassy in Tehran.  [The Iranians, recognizing his weakness, humiliated President Jimmy Carter by holding the Embassy and the staff as hostages until President Reagan took office in 1981.]

Egyptians, leery of the growing influence of the Muslim brotherhood, attacked Hillary Clinton's motorcade, apparently based on the belief that her assistant  [Huma Abedin] was part of the Muslim Sisterhood movement and that the Obama Administration was behind the installation of Mr Morsi as Egypt's new leader.

Meanwhile, in Syria, Mr Assad, already strong through a dynastic rule, used Israel's attack against  a Damascus site in 2003 [claiming it was a terrorist training site] and again against Syria's nuclear facility in 2007 to consolidate his power and attack his opposition.  The population has rebelled and we are now witnessing a civil war of growing proportions.  Hundreds of thousands of Syrians are fleeing the country, and Turkey risks destabilization as it attempts to accomodate all these refugees.  The United Nations has proven to be useless in this exercise, and there is no clear conclusion to this conflict in sight, even though much of the military has defected.

Israel is keen on Syria's discord since the discord will destabilize Syria and undercut it as a threat and sees a weakened Syria as an opportunity to claim the remainder of the Golan Heights for settlements -- setting the stage for regional conflict in the future.  Once again, should Syria fall to the Muslim Brotherhood control, Israel quickly becomes at risk significantly greater than in times past.


Mr Putin, of former KGB status, is manipulating the situation by providing Assad with arms, aircraft, missiles, and logistical support to keep Assad in power -- if for no other reason than to keep the US off balance.  He also supplies Iran with a variety of materials, with an eye on access to Iran's oil.

Americans are fools to have elected you


Mr Putin has recognized that Mr Obama is clueless in the global arena; so he will exploit Obama's weakness.  We suspect he is even feeding Mr Obama's campaign to keep him in office to ensure the US remains weak and indecisive.



The Great Game [Oil]


As in the 19th Century, we find Russia lurking behind several curtains, attempting to establish geopolitical influence, and perhaps control, with the ultimate aim of manipulating/controlling the regional oil flow and mineral exploitation.


Although The Great Game for supremacy over Central Asia was a 19th Century duel between the Brits and the Russians, it has segued into a more subtle sequel between the US/NATO and Russia/PRC.

Muslim Brotherhood
The wild card in this game though, is the Muslim Brotherhood [MB] which seeks to establish a religious state, ostensibly democratic, governed by Sharia Law.

We suspect the MB may be the shadow force behind the attacks on the US Embassies in Libya and Egypt, and we would not be surprised to see more such attacks in other Middle East Muslim countries, and as far away as Indonesia.  China has its own version of the MB, although we're not sure of its linkage with that in the Middle East.

We don't see Mr Obama standing in their way.