Monday, February 6, 2012

Egyptian Meltdown

Be careful what you wish for;
you might get it.

Click here for related story
 [Washington Post]
We 're following events in Egypt with mixed emotions.

On the one hand we applaud the Egyptian uprising in search of a democratic republic in which the citizens have a voice in their government.  This is meaningful to Americans who are watching our government dissolving into a police state.

The Egyptians have every right to challenge their own police state and demand a voice in their government.  They've taken to the streets, gained media attention throughout the world, and brought down the Mubarek military regime.  Mubarek was no sweetheart as he came to power through the assassination of Anwar Sadat -- an event intelligence analysts at the time presumed was engineered by Mubarek. 

We worry though, that the demonstrators who successfully brought down the Mubarek Regime might now find their very successful leaderless revolution has been infiltrated and manipulated by outside forces.

I think back to the days of my youth when I participated in civil rights and anti-war demonstrations, only to be appalled when Communist provocateurs infiltrated and took over the leadership positions.  A case in point that our Egyptian demonstrators might want to examine is how Bill Ayers and his extremist Communist Weather Underground took over the leadership of the SDS [Students for a Democratic Society] and dragged thousands of idealistic student demonstrators into violent and criminal activities  -- and discrediting the entire protest movement.  
[Ayers, by the way, has been a mentor of our very own Obama.]

Who are the primary foreign intelligence players in the Egyptian movement?

We suspect Mossad was involved early on fomenting revolt to undercut Egypt's power as a potential adversary to Israel since it passively supported the Palestinians.   That was probably a poorly thought out strategy since Egypt had acted as Israel's commercial proxy to MENA [Middle East North Africa] for the last 35 years; Israel has now been cut off at the border and has lost a significant amount of revenue from regional trade -- which may be a long-term economic problem. Israel has also lost considerable political or diplomatic influence with Egypt's military government.

Iran would certainly have put VEVAK's intelligence operatives to work infiltrating the demonstrations and assuming key leadership positions [e.g., finance, communications, membership].  They did a very thorough job of infiltrating the Iraqi anti-American movement and have filled all key positions in Iraq with radical Shi'ites who are assuming dictatorial powers.  They will likely work to install the  Muslim Brotherhood as the new governing body in Cairo.

Russia's SVR [the successor to the Soviet KGB] is likely there, recruiting Egyptian students to infiltrate the organizations now forming with the mission of monitoring activities and identifying potential leaders.  They'll be well funded and manipulative [much the same as they've been with US students and politicians].  They're not interested in taking over the movement, but rather manipulating and controlling those with leadership potential.

Last but not least is our very own CIA.  Twenty years ago, I'd have said it would be intimately involved, spreading money and influence.  But, that was 20 years ago -- before Bill Clinton politicized it and neutralized its effectiveness as an intelligence-gathering organization [some say Putin (then a KGB operative)  recruited Clinton as a KGB agent while he was on an Oxford sponsored tour of the USSR -- which would explain a lot].  Bush was unable to repair the damage, and created the DHS to displace it.

So, is the CIA an effective player in anything other than a paramilitary role?  Not a chance.  The folks I've met lately can't hold a candle to their adversarial counterparts.  If it's not technology-based, they're incapable of doing it.

Visible of late are the "pro-democracy" groups, such as that led by Sam LaHood [son of the US Transportation Secretary].  These groups, though well-meaning, are as welcome in Egypt as the Muslim Brotherhood would be in the US if they engaged in political activity.  Although they have no intelligence connections, they are viewed as such simply because they attempt to influence the internal affairs of Egypt.  LaHood and the other NGOs became prime targets after Obama by-passed his Secretary of State [Hilary Clinton] and threatened Egypt's leadership with a cut-off of US aid.  Obama and his staff, not being familiar with diplomatic intercourse, were then surprised when Egypt's military responded by putting LaHood and his cohorts under house arrest, and then began rounding up other Americans.

Things just aren't the same in international politics as they were in the Community Organizing effort in Chicago.

But, I've digressed.
Modern Cairo; it's not a backward country.
What's the future in Egypt?  The push will continue to displace the military as the ruling group.

Now, this is the same military that backed the early demonstrations and periodically prevented police brutality.  They've displaced Mubarek, and their primary interest is maintaining order and stability lest outside groups like the Muslim Brotherhood gain a foothold.  They are also anxious to maintain control of the remote south and border areas which have traditionally threatened national stability.  Outside agitators will be anxious to create confrontational situations which force the military to over-react and justify violence by protesters.

The end result may be a bloodbath like we're witnessing in Syria, during which all the Egyptian idealist protesters will meet untimely deaths, becoming convenient martyrs to be exploited by foreign intelligence operatives.  The ultimate goal of these foreign agitators is to discredit and cripple the Egyptian Army so it is incapable of defending the country from outside aggressors and/or internal revolts.

I'd say that the Arab Spring movement will eventually change the political structure in the Middle East; but, the danger lies in the infiltration of the movement by radical elements from Iran.

We wish our Egyptian brethren well, but caution them to be careful of aggressive leadership leadership and their hidden  allegiances.

[We have yet to learn that lesson in America.]